Top Step 09/14/2006
Weekly Commodity Analysis: Topic: Coffee Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5
| Current Charts:
Daily... My first step in dissecting a market is to find
several common cycles that one can replicate with confidence. Wow, not
much here, as you can see on the chart below. The only cycle that
looked good was longer-term cycle 280 market days. The next daily charts is
my favorite and how I do most of my option trades and position trades.
As you can see the Solar Eclipse rules the market. I plotted the
Lunar as well, as I always do, just in case the lunar is ruling this market.
Page 2 shows the break down on the coffee from the fall solar eclipse in
2003 to present. The solar is the king. Currently the solar
eclipse is scheduled to arrive on 09-22-06. To have a bullish potential we
need the market to close above the previous solar eclipse close, (that is
market with red close to close line). The previous close to close was
higher and second one after this current base established would be extremely
popular with me!!!! Next page I tell you how I option trade this next
move. Weekly... This spot weekly chart is of a square of the range to zero. The last bull high was in the end of May 1997. Enough years have past to reload this great white market. The deflationary commodity period was from 1999 to 2001. The coffee used all of that by making lows in the end of the year of 2001. Typically inflationary periods run in 10 to 12 year cycles. 10 to 12 years should see the volatile period or 2010 to 2012. |
Minor quakes and quick irruptions will likely be the trade.
As you can see the market's recent low was on the 6/8ths of time in the
current triangle. 50% is an obvious target and /or the 2x1 coming up
from the 4/8ths time square. This line hit the lows in 2004 and
provided incredible support in that bull run. An obvious point that must be
mentioned, is that a break of lower triangle in conjunction with taking out
the last main low swing, would be bearish. If this occurs, the best
you can hope for is a sideways chop. Monthly... This spot monthly chart plots the mathematical time lines. 99 or 100 is an important cycle to watch on the monthly chart. 99 x 12 = 1188 . 1188 / 33 =36. 99 x 52 = 5148. 5148 / 36 = 143. As you can see the cycle time of 99 has proven its self over time. And since I'm looking at this market as an options type trade you can see the explosive nature after the 99 time has come in. Some come but important impending trend lines are plotted by dashes. The uptrend forming the triangle is publicly watched. The trend line coming off the all-time-highs has already played an important role in forming the breakout pivot and the top of the triangle. The battle line is drawn and should be explosive once either side is violated. What I like is the formed base. Lows in 2001 to 2004, with grinding rally that triple its price. This phase establishes the trend and a the all important breakout and acceleration point. NEXT |
