Top Step 08/13/2006
Weekly Commodity Analysis: Topic: Crude Oil Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5
| Current Charts:
Daily... Since the Bull market started from the lows of
1999 and secondary lows of 2001, the market has followed several rhythmic
patterns. Minor cycles have been 30 market days in length, either from
a primary /secondary swing high, or distribution /gap patterns, the market
tends to trend lower 30 market days. Then from that point or any point
farthest from any accumulation, tends to rally the market up 30 market days.
The last bullish news occurred on the BP pipeline scandal. Downside 30
market day cycle arrives on 08-28-2006 (marked on the chart) or 09-21-2006
(not market on the chart). The 09-21 (30 market days from 08-09-2006
high) is a Thursday, with the weekend beginning the Fall Equinox. Also, note
the longer-term cycles that have caused market irritations, 216, 144, and
72. 72 minor, 144 mid, 216 major in which 216 is (72 x3). The
Oct high in 2004 144 was a low, 288 was a low and 432 was a high, (highest
close). Conversely, from the Oct high in 2004 the 216 was major high and 432
was a high. Weekly... This spot weekly chart plots the Gann Square of the 360 using a 1x1 with the speed set at 0.10 per one week. Since the time and price have moved through the first square of 360, the next square is now 720. I drew this 720 square when the price moved through 46.35 in Oct of 2004. The commodity futures of Crude Light is relatively new. Trading started in 1983 with lows in 1986 at 9.75, so the lows of 10.35 in 1999 is very important. 82.35 will square out the price of this 720 chart, (72.00+10.35=82.35), or (72.00+9.75=81.75). |
Not quite a price and time match, currently price is ahead
of time. But notice on the chart that the 1x1 off the Mid or 360 weeks of
time hit the market highs this last week, and the market responded to "buy
the rumor sell the fact" off the BP news, which, at minimum, BP knew they
were going to release this news earlier this spring,,, hmmm. One last
thing, the next sub-square (5/8ths) come is in the week of 08-10-2007, this
is 52 weeks or 1 year from now! Monthly... This spot monthly chart plots the Gann square of price. The price is based off the all-time low in 1986 at 9.75. The square you see is 9.75 x 8 =78.00. This price and time square starts at zero and proves continuity to cyclical time lines that are drawn on the chart. The high so far this month is 78.50, but the close will be the most important thing to watch. The highest close in the last major rally in 1990 was at 39.51, (39.51 x 2 = 79.02).. This square is made on 78.00 price and 400 months time (78.00 / 400 = .1950) at an angle of 0.1950, (975x2=1950). The sub-squares of time run at 50 week increments, (400 / 8 = 50). The next spot crude monthly sub-square of time comes in on February 2007, interesting to note that the last issue was on Gold, and its monthly chart also shows important timing in February 2007 (possible inflationary blow-off or deflationary gut-check???). The market is running in harmony with the sub-squares of 1x1, matching the parallel lows in 1998-2001 to previous all-time highs in 1990. Also, taking the square from the low instead of zero, projects 87.75. If a high can be confirmed, several things are possible, 1) a break down into Feb, which may reengage the bull run, 2) some type of choppy distribution, which maybe seen as secondary or high pivot top. 3) blow off top. Time will tell NEXT |
