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Weekly Commodity Analysis:  Topic: Soybeans   Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5

CFTC Data:  The funds and small specs are short and commercials are long.  This along is enough to make the market rally.  The funds this past 18 months have got killed.  Caught in the sideways market chop.  This past week the funds commercials and the specs have dropped open interest, as we approach the big seasonal July event. 

The major problem for the bears is the extremely large Spec short position.  It appear to me that if the market can flush these farmer's hedgers and short speculators out the market a good sale would be at hand.  Until then sideways, buy dips and sell resistance.  NEXT

 

CBOT Beans Funds L Funds S Spreads Comm L Comm S Total L Total S Spec L Spec S
7/7/2006 58,658 70,570 62,958 162,613 116,075 284,229 249,603 46,916 81,542
6/30/2006 52,932 87,247 64,801 184,680 118,277 302,413 270,325 48,787 80,875
6/23/2006 62,316 74,388 72,758 180,339 134,051 315,413 281,197 58,647 92,863
6/16/2006 69,171 72,400 80,014 171,054 132,237 320,239 284,651 59,721 95,309
6/9/2006 67,728 80,212 68,184 191,146 141,017 327,058 289,413 56,244 93,889
6/2/2006 60,241 85,930 68,578 197,916 135,238 326,735 289,746 57,782 94,771
5/26/2006 59,890 72,265 65,277 188,548 137,057 313,715 274,599 59,137 98,253
5/19/2006 69328 63227 65996 186951 153480 322275 282703 65824 105396
5/12/2006 61909 64558 63383 185067 142265 310359 270206 57777 97930
5/5/2006 55608 69636 63080 191712 137682 310400 270398 46506 86508
4/28/2006 45868 85714 62788 199341 115642 307997 264144 57780 101633
4/21/2006 53521 93543 64978 199015 120940 317514 279461 58297 96350
4/14/2006 56138 103208 60814 207150 118858 324102 282880 61312 102534
4/7/2006 53596 96803 61042 205776 116308 320414 274153 57320 103581
3/31/2006 48230 82184 58648 195818 123408 302696 264240 57017 95473
3/24/2006 51011 81041 56383 192530 123565 299924 260989 53622 92557
3/17/2006 51891 67410 54934 186765 134353 293590 256697 54755 91648
3/10/2006 56249 60592 57112 186299 144626 299660 262330 53617 90947
3/3/2006 55656 59472 51374 189918 148109 296948 258955 54317 92310
2/24/2006 65152 50631 55050 190857 161992 311059 267673 65023 108409
2/17/2006 58908 60672 53496 190062 155174 302466 269342 60104 93228
2/10/2006 58678 65463 46979 187730 144136 293387 256578 57677 94486
2/3/2006 58411 72271 47394 179140 130065 284945 249730 57756 92971
1/27/2006 54707 76211 45397 176515 123280 276619 244888 53587 85318
1/20/2006 53444 66189 38797 169966 124983 262207 229969 55514 87752
1/13/2006 57101 52153 34013 158211 128715 249325 214881 50114 84558
1/6/2006 57119 41997 34680 147461 131343 239260 208020 48491 79731
12/30/2005 55477 43978 33938 149942 132142 239357 210058 52649 81948
12/23/2005 54193 47946 33456 151604 130977 239253 212379 55596 82470
12/16/2005 49798 62320 33047 153942 119230 236787 214597 53100 75290
12/9/2005 45313 72878 30740 162072 112498 238125 216116 52449 74458
12/2/2005 42981 71252 30697 162032 110750 235710 212699 50799 73810
11/28/2005 43581 56945 27108 153838 117989 224527 202042 47735 70220
11/18/2005 50295 44700 25822 146031 127283 222148 197805 46703 71046
11/11/2005 47024 43007 27182 151917 129973 226123 200162 44038 69999
11/4/2005 47813 44732 28221 156209 129813 232243 202766 42393 71870
10/28/2005 44149 43187 28878 164848 136267 237875 208332 51356 80899
10/21/2005 60825 49055 32661 156777 137683 250263 219399 48528 79392
10/14/2005 58096 54032 29109 151573 122401 238778 205542 49382 82618
10/7/2005 57675 55468 24390 139835 113097 221900 192955 45306 74251
CBOT Funds Funds Funds Funds Comm Comm Comm Comm Spec Spec Spec Spec
Bean Net Long +/- Short +/- OI +/- Net Long +/- Short +/- OI +/- Net Long +/- Short +/- OI +/-
7/7/2006 -11912 5726 -16677 -10951 46538 -22067 -2202 -24269 -34626 -1871 667 -1204
6/30/2006 -34315 -9384 12859 3475 66403 4341 -15774 -11433 -32088 -9860 -11988 -21848
6/23/2006 -12072 -6855 1988 -4867 46288 9285 1814 11099 -34216 -1074 -2446 -3520
6/16/2006 -3229 1443 -7812 -6369 38817 -20092 -8780 -28872 -35588 3477 1420 4897
6/9/2006 -12,484 7,487 -5,718 1,769 50,129 -6,770 5,779 -991 -37,645 -1,538 -882 -2,420
6/2/2006 -25,689 351 13,665 14,016 62,678 9,368 -1,819 7,549 -36,989 -1,355 -3,482 -4,837
5/26/2006 -12,375 -9,438 9,038 -400 51,491 1,597 -16,423 -14,826 -39,116 -6,687 -7,143 -13,830
5/19/2006 6,101 7,419 -1,331 6,088 33,471 1,884 11,215 13,099 -39,572 8,047 7,466 15,513
5/12/2006 -2,649 6,301 -5,078 1,223 42,802 -6,645 4,583 -2,062 -40,153 11,271 11,422 22,693
5/5/2006 -14,028 9,740 -16,078 -6,338 54,030 -7,629 22,040 14,411 -40,002 -11,274 -15,125 -26,399
4/28/2006 -39,846 -7,653 -7,829 -15,482 83,699 326 -5,298 -4,972 -43,853 -517 5,283 4,766
4/21/2006 -40,022 -2,617 -9,665 -12,282 78,075 -8,135 2,082 -6,053 -38,053 -3,015 -6,184 -9,199
4/14/2006 -47,070 2,542 6,405 8,947 88,292 1,374 2,550 3,924 -41,222 3,992 -1,047 2,945
4/7/2006 -43,207 5,366 14,619 19,985 89,468 9,958 -7,100 2,858 -46,261 303 8,108 8,411
3/31/2006 -33,954 -2,781 1,143 -1,638 72,410 3,288 -157 3,131 -38,456 3,395 2,916 6,311
3/24/2006 -30,030 -880 13,631 12,751 68,965 5,765 -10,788 -5,023 -38,935 -1,133 909 -224
3/17/2006 -15,519 -4,358 6,818 2,460 52,412 466 -10,273 -9,807 -36,893 1,138 701 1,839
3/10/2006 -4,343 593 1,120 1,713 41,673 -3,619 -3,483 -7,102 -37,330 -700 -1,363 -2,063
3/3/2006 -3,816 -9,496 8,841 -655 41,809 -939 -13,883 -14,822 -37,993 -10,706 -16,099 -26,805
2/24/2006 14,521 6,244 -10,041 -3,797 28,865 795 6,818 7,613 -43,386 4,919 15,181 20,100
2/17/2006 -1,764 230 -4,791 -4,561 34,888 2,332 11,038 13,370 -33,124 2,427 -1,258 1,169
2/10/2006 -6,785 267 -6,808 -6,541 43,594 8,590 14,071 22,661 -36,809 -79 1,515 1,436
2/3/2006 -13,860 3,704 -3,940 -236 49,075 2,625 6,785 9,410 -35,215 4,169 7,653 11,822
1/27/2006 -21,504 1,263 10,022 11,285 53,235 6,549 -1,703 4,846 -31,731 -1,927 -2,434 -4,361
1/20/2006 -12,745 -3,657 14,036 10,379 44,983 11,755 -3,732 8,023 -32,238 5,400 3,194 8,594
1/13/2006 4,948 -18 10,156 10,138 29,496 10,750 -2,628 8,122 -34,444 1,623 4,827 6,450
1/6/2006 15,122 1,642 -1,981 -339 16,118 -2,481 -799 -3,280 -31,240 -4,158 -2,217 -6,375
12/30/2005 11,499 1,284 -3,968 -2,684 17,800 -1,662 1,165 -497 -29,299 -2,947 -522 -3,469
12/23/2005 6,247 4,395 -14,374 -9,979 20,627 -2,338 11,747 9,409 -26,874 2,496 7,180 9,676
12/16/2005 -12,522 4,485 -10,558 -6,073 34,712 -8,130 6,732 -1,398 -22,190 651 832 1,483
12/9/2005 -27,565 2,332 1,626 3,958 49,574 40 1,748 1,788 -22,009 1,650 648 2,298
12/2/2005 -28,271 -600 14,307 13,707 51,282 8,194 -7,239 955 -23,011 3,064 3,590 6,654
11/28/2005 -13,364 -6,714 12,245 5,531 35,849 7,807 -9,294 -1,487 -22,485 1,032 -826 206
11/18/2005 5,595 3,271 1,693 4,964 18,748 -5,886 -2,690 -8,576 -24,343 2,665 1,047 3,712
11/11/2005 4,017 -789 -1,725 -2,514 21,944 -4,292 160 -4,132 -25,961 1,645 -1,871 -226
11/4/2005 3,081 3,664 1,545 5,209 26,396 -8,639 -6,454 -15,093 -29,477 -8,963 -9,029 -17,992
10/28/2005 962 -16,676 -5,868 -22,544 28,581 8,071 -1,416 6,655 -29,543 2,828 1,507 4,335
10/21/2005 11,770 2,729 -4,977 -2,248 19,094 5,204 15,282 20,486 -30,864 -854 -3,226 -4,080
10/14/2005 4,064 421 -1,436 -1,015 29,172 11,738 9,304 21,042 -33,236 4,076 8,367 12,443