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Weekly Commodity Analysis: Topic: Soybeans Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5
| Seasonal studies: The lack of season strength is concerning, to say the least. As you can see Nov beans begin their heavy seasonal decline this month of July. Assuming average growing conditions, with larger supplies on hand, on must look at selling near-term strength until our Mid-Aug Lows are in. This means the Sept call options will more then likely get wiped out. Put options may gain if the drop is large enough. | Now this is a 4, 5 year seasonal study. The bulls hope ride on the fact that historical bull runs have occurred in the Fall. 1974, 1976, 1979, 1980, 1983. The old error will need to reappear. Early frosts, and late heat waves will need to drive the market into a current counter seasonal event. If this does occur the bears will fight it all the way, because the minds are focused on short-term memories. Historical charts will need to be review if a fall pattern emerges. NEXT |
